主讲人：Liam Brunt （挪威经济学院）
讲座题目：Why Europe and not Asia? Agricultural productivity and industrial revolution around the world before 1870
Using an extensive and detailed new data set, we estimate agricultural output and productivity around the world in 1705, 1775, 1845 and 1870. We find higher cross-country dispersion and slower productivity growth than Maddison (2006); valuing outputs in $1990 international biases his output growth estimates upward two-fold. China and India were extremely unproductive compared to Europe; over-population (low land-labor ratio) generated this differential. Our indices have statistical confidence intervals—the first of their kind; they are surprisingly tight. Decomposing them into component parts reveals that population and acreage are key to achieving accurate productivity estimates; these are our best-measured variables.