【5月28日】金融学院第125期双周学术论坛：Assessing China’s Fiscal Risks- A Case Study of the Local Government Financia发布日期：2019-09-12 21:10:48
一、主题：Assessing China’s Fiscal Risks: A Case Study of the Local Government Financial Vehicles
二、主讲人：陶坤玉，中央财经大学金融学院讲师。2013年毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院，获经济学博士学位，博士期间赴美国纽约哥伦比亚大学商学院访问一年。研究兴趣包括国际金融、经济发展等，博士论文为“剩余劳动力信贷约束对我国经济内外失衡的影响”。参与国家级重大课题3项，其研究成果发表于Asian Economic papers、《世界经济》《南开经济研究》等。
Abstract：China’s rapid credit expansion after the recent global financial crisis brought local government financial vehicles (LGFVs) into the spotlight. the rapid expansion of LGFVs triggered concerns regarding local government indebtedness, banks’ asset quality and more broadly, medium term financial stability and sovereign risk in China. This paper constructs a unique firm level dataset to evaluate China’s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFVs which are more concentrated in coast area, and a deterioration of debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. we then conduct a principle component analysis (PCA) along with multi-variant discriminant analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFVs based on conventional financial variables as well as local government fiscal status. the 6 components covers the information on profitability, leverage, debt repaying ability, operating efficiency and local government fiscal status, with MDA, we discriminate the less healthy LGFVs from healthy LGFVs, and the average accuracy of our model is 85%. The future prediction reveals that the local government debt risks in middle-western provinces are more severe, the LGFVs at municipal level besides county level are with higher risk. So although it is very unlikely that there will be a debt crisis in local China, the high risk in LGFVs should be noticed and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.