讲座题目：Stronger Protest or Bigger Bluffing? Quantifying the Impacts of Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Tensions on Trade
主 讲 人：崔静波（武汉大学经济与管理学院副教授）
主讲人简介：数理经济与数理金融系副主任，湖北省楚天学者人才计划。2012年6月毕业于美国爱荷华州立大学经济学系，获经济学博士学位。曾担任爱荷华州立大学经济学系博士后、访问助理教授。研究方向：环境经济学、创新、国际贸易。研究成果已发表在AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Energy Economics, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development等。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目和应急项目（子课题负责人）。担任环境经济学国际顶级学术期刊JEEM, JAERE以及国内权威学术期刊《中国工业经济》、《经济学（季刊）》等匿名审稿人。
This paper studies the impacts of the Sino-Japanese political tensions on bilateral trade. Using a detailed dataset on daily political events between China and Japan from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether stronger diplomatic expressions triggered by non-military tensions are associated with larger loss in trade. First we construct a diplomatic tension index incorporating the heterogeneity of language responses and event types, and then we run a gravity model of China with its trade partners to test the effect of tensions. The empirical results first show that in the period with tense Sino- Japanese frictions, total exports to Japan experience a significant reduction, whereas the political effects on total imports to China are less pronounced. We also disentangle the short-run and long-run impacts of political interactions on trade, which reveals that better diplomatic relation does mean higher trade in the long-run. In addition, we check separately the impacts of weak and strong responses, and find that strong responses are significantly more destructive than weak responses in terms of Chinese imports. Last but not the least, several industries are identified as most fragile to tensions between China and Japan. Our work sheds light on the influence of diplomatic frictions on interstate trade in a relatively peaceful international environment.