讲座题目：SILVER: COMMODITY AND/OR MONEY? Evidence from China 1890 – 1936
主 讲 人：谢一青 助理教授（复旦大学经济学院）
谢一青博士，毕业于美国科罗拉多大学博尔德分校，师从James R. Markusen，复旦大学经济学院助理教授，现任复旦大学世界经济系副系主任、复旦大学经济-成均馆中国大学院项目主管。专长于国际经济学，产业组织和发展经济学研究。担任Journal of Economic History，Oxford Economic Papers，Economic Inquiry，World Economy，以及《世界经济》等学术期刊的匿名审稿人。主要论文发表于Southern Economic Journal, International Journal of Economic Theory,《世界经济》等。
We clarify the silver outflow and depression puzzle in China between 1933 and 1935 by bringing the effect of international trade into a long-run analysis from 1890 to 1936. When foreign countries treated silver as a commodity before 1931, silver appreciation was accompanied by a decrease in silver outflow, while the improvement of terms of trade increased the silver outflow. When foreign countries treated silver as money after they abandoned the gold standard, silver appreciation caused more silver outflow, and the improvement of terms of trade magnified the outflow. Silver appreciation led to an improvement in terms of trade, and further increased China’s trade balance. However, the trade balance increase was caused by a decrease of exports outweighed by an even larger decrease of imports. And therefore, China’s GDP per capita worsened accordingly. We also find empirical supports from the Chinese bank data from 1912 to 1931 that an improvement in terms of trade and/or a higher net silver outflow made the banks perform worse.